What Would Biden’s Potential Replacements Mean for Israel? – The Forward

President Joe Biden speaks at the grand opening of the Stonewall National Monument Visitor Center on June 28. Photo by Kevin Mazur/Getty Images for the Stonewall National Monument Visitor Center, a program of Pride Live

Columnist
Dan Perry
June 29, 2024

In the wake of President Joe Biden’s poor performance in this week’s presidential debate, there is talk of finding a way to replace him as the Democratic presidential nominee. If that happens, it could have major consequences for Israel.

That’s because Biden has been a pro-Israel president — to a degree that is strikingly at odds with rising anti-Israel sentiment among the Democratic base, and especially among younger progressives who not only have little sympathy for Israeli policies toward Palestinians, but also increasingly inclined to see Zionism as a colonial enterprise.

So if Biden steps aside — which his campaign on Friday showed he has no intention of doing — it’s likely that whoever replaces him won’t show the same enthusiasm for supporting Israel.

Israelis and their supporters should find it remarkable that Biden has made himself a “Zionist”during his visit to Israel in 2022; became the first American leader to visit Israel during wartime last October; and has largely stuck with Israel despite its globally unpopular war against Hamas in Gaza, which has killed many thousands of civilians in the Strip.

Some Israelis, especially on the right, are angry at Biden for allegedly holding on to some ammunition – a claim Prime Minister Netanyahu recently made, without much evidence other than a single withheld shipment – and for his apparent antipathy towards Netanyahu, who late next month to address a joint session of Congress, but has not yet received an invitation to the White House.

Furthermore, the Biden administration has been tireless in its efforts to orchestrate an exit strategy for Israel from the war. Among them: proposing a grand postwar design that could include normalization with Saudi Arabia in the context of creating a Sunni-Western-Israeli strategic alliance to counter Iran’s regional ambitions.

That level of ambition reflects the fact that Biden is not only a foreign affairs expert but also a member of the post-World War II generation that built the liberal world order, which now relies on some degree of American activism.

Those touted as potential Biden replacements would come with a very different worldview.

Here’s a quick rundown of some of the names that might come up:

Vice President Kamala Harris: Harris, whose husband is Jewish, should get credit for the administration’s pro-Israel policies, but she seems to be doing so clearly cooler for Israel than Biden and is generally closer to the progressive camp’s positions on the Middle East.

Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro: The Jewish governor of a critical state, where Jewish votes could be decisive, may be closest to Biden in terms of his level of commitment to Israel. He has defended the war against Hamassaying that Israel has a “responsibility” to defeat Hamas, and has been critical of universities that have allowed camps of students who oppose Israel in ways seen as flirting with anti-Semitism. Of all the potential replacements, he is the one most likely to speak the language of old-fashioned, almost automatic support for Israel.

Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer: One of Whitmer’s big assets: She could help Democrats win Michigan, the swing state with the largest Muslim-American population — about a quarter million. (Biden’s margin of victory in the state in 2020 was about 150,000 votes.) Given the demographics of her state, though, it’s notable that Whitmer has defended Biden’s approach to the war and refused to call Israel’s actions a “genocide.” — or, to be fair, deny the charges outright, and maintain her credibility with her Muslim voters. There’s no evidence she would ever describe herself as a Zionist — but she’s been close enough to Biden that Israel policy may well remain the same. And it’s worth noting that she’s been dynamic, for example by pushing through sweeping gun reform in her state. You sense that she wouldn’t tolerate Netanyahu’s machinations — and that she would almost certainly be less willing to do so than Biden.

Senator Raphael Warnock of Georgia: Warnock comes from another state that should be critical in November, and he relies heavily on black voters, who are increasingly distant from Israel. Warnock himself has a history of supporting a two-state solution, but in his public life has managed to upset all parties on the Israeli-Palestine continuum. He has been accused (almost certainly wrongly) of both anti-Semitism and of the betrayal of the Palestinians upon taking office. His instincts are progressive and focused on social justice — which means he would be no friend of Benjamin Netanyahu.

California Governor Gavin Newsom: Newsom has national name recognition, but may be a bit of a gamble because he comes from a state that is sure to go Democratic; he doesn’t bring the added benefit of a pull in a crucial swing stage. That might make you think Newsom would be cool with Israel, but in fact he is told NBC a few months ago that he wants to “see Hamas eliminated.” To be fair, he also said that Netanyahu is “doubly stupid” by abandoning the two-state solution in dismissing it in recent statements the idea that the Palestinians should eventually gain independence in the West Bank and Gaza. He has also called for a ceasefire in Gaza, a rare foreign policy intervention for a governor. He is a classic American supporter of Israel, but is close to the progressive movement and is unlikely to share the real emotional bond with Israel that Biden has. He would certainly support a potential moderate Israeli government after Netanyahu.

If all this happens, it will be remembered as a consequence of Biden’s age. Choosing a replacement for Biden would be a turning of the page from an older generation of Americans who came of age when memories of the Holocaust and World War II were still fresh, and when Israel was seen as the plucky underdog. Biden, who is prone to quoting 1970s Israeli Prime Minister Golda Meir, is the epitome of this. His successors will be far less emotional.

But even as some of these potential replacements—notably Warnock—are closer to the progressive camp that is turning away from Israel, they can still be expected to continue the Democratic Party’s bedrock support for Israel and its support for a two-state solution, at least for another generation of Democratic leadership. There is still too much support for Israel among the American centrists who are crucial to winning national office, and all have shown pragmatism—and ambition.

The main difference between them and Biden would likely manifest itself more in the extent to which they would be willing to stand up to Netanyahu and punish him for his stubbornness in pursuing a long-term solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Biden has been rather dovish; everyone on the above list would be more likely, both temperamentally and out of respect for changing domestic politics, to stand up to the Israeli right.

For Israel, this moment of reflection on the post-Biden future brings into focus the contours of a fundamental challenge: if the Israeli right-wing camp remains in power and does not change its behavior, it will come into serious conflict with the American Democratic Party of the future.

I hope you appreciated this article. Before you go, I’d like to ask you to please support Forward’s award-winning, nonprofit journalism during this critical time.

Now more than ever, American Jews need independent news they can trust, with reporting driven by truth, not ideology. We serve you, not an ideological agenda.

At a time when other newsrooms are closing or cutting back, the Forward has removed its paywall and invested additional resources into reporting on the ground from Israel and the rest of the US about the impact of the war, rising anti-Semitism and protests on college campuses.

Readers like you make it all possible. Support our work by becoming a Forward Member and connect with our journalism and your community.

Give a gift of any size and become one Come on member today. You support our mission to tell the American Jewish story fully and honestly.

— Rachel Fishman Feddersen, publisher and CEO

Join us in our mission to tell the Jewish story fully and honestly.